Nor’easter On the Way: What to Expect and When

Hey everyone,

The latest weather model guidance continues to come into agreement on the development of a coastal low off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening, and then strengthen rapidly as it moves northward. From Wednesday morning through Thursday evening, the storm will hit the East Coast with heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding. The possibility of snow is looking less likely, but the further inland, the better the chance for accumulating snowfall. More on this in the coming days as the models hone in on the precipitation scenarios surrounding this complex Nor’easter.

Now, in the lovely world of weather, we Meteorologists have many computer weather models on which we rely on to help us determine where a storm might be headed and how it will develop. In the case of this storm, the models have been pointing to a coastal low developing almost a week out, and that is what we like to call run-to-run consistency. When this happens, we can become confident in the idea of such a storm occurring. This is very good for the public, as we are able to provide a great warning time for people in the path of the storm. Preparations and the necessary precautions can be taken in due time. With this storm, we have a lot of time to prepare and the computer models are in good agreement on the timing of this storm. The hardest part though is forecasting precipitation type this far out. That is something that will be much easier to forecast by tomorrow afternoon and into Tuesday. I will certainly bring the latest information to you as that becomes available.

Now the track of this storm looks to be almost parallel to the coast, with very heavy rainfall expected from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia, to New York, and Boston. Unfortunately, this storm could bring coastal flooding to areas that have been recently decimated by Hurricane Sandy a little over a week ago. Erosion of beaches and flooding will be a serious concern, as well as strong winds, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph, and gusts from 40-55 mph likely. The closer to shore, the stronger the winds will be. I expect to see many places with storm total rainfall approaching 2 inches or more by the time all is said and done. Now, the Presidential Election is being held on Tuesday and hopefully, this storm won’t disrupt voting in the southeastern US on Tuesday evening. Fortunately, the storm should just be beginning to develop on Tuesday evening and many people will have voted by that time.

I will be back tomorrow with more details on the track of this developing storm and where the heaviest rain and even snow may fall. As always, my thoughts and prayers go out to the millions of people that have been affected by Sandy this past week. Keep sending in donations and give as much as you can. This is important. People always come together in times like this.

Until next time

Meteorologist Mack


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