Midweek Nor’easter: More specific details on timing and precipitation type/amount.

Good evening everyone,

As promised earlier this afternoon, I will bring everyone up-to-date on the impending Nor’easter. However, I would first like to thank everyone who has been viewing and reading the blog. I recently started this blog and it means a lot to me to see the number of views go up each day. As is the case with any social media platform, followers and readers mean everything, and I am thankful to have readers and viewers such as yourselves. Now, onto the Nor’easter.

First and of all, the timing of this system continues to lean toward a late Tuesday night timeframe for the development of this low off the Carolina Coasts and then moving slightly east of north as the storm deepens and parallels the East Coast through Thursday. By Friday, the storm will have moved into Nova Scotia and no longer pose a threat to the United States. With regards to timing for specific cities:

–Washington D.C. should expect the rain to begin after 8AM on Wednesday morning and continue throughout most of the day. A changeover to snow is actually looking like a possibility Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible, dependent on Boundary Layer temperatures and ground/soil temperatures.

–Philadelphia/New York should expect the rain to begin after 10AM on Wednesday morning and continue through the late afternoon. At this time, a mix of rain and snow is possible Wednesday night, and if temperatures in the Boundary layer can cool enough, accumulating snowfall is possible in these two metropolitan areas.

–Boston should expect to the rain to begin after 1PM on Wednesday and it won’t let up until late Thursday night. Interestingly, Boston is the city least likely to see accumulating snowfall since the track of this low takes it slightly closer to Boston, wrapping in warmer air from the mid-levels of the atmosphere and keeping precipitation in the form of rain.

Now, with regard to amounts, I am sticking with my forecast of up to 2 inches of precipitation for many of the major cities, with Boston likely receiving upwards of 3 inches of rainfall by the time all is said and done. With regard to snowfall, any areas west of the I-95 Corridor need to be paying the most attention to this. In these areas, temperatures could fall much quicker and heavy snow is likely in the higher elevations along the Appalachians. Unlike a typical Nor’easter, this one will not produce as much heavy snowfall, as it is earlier in the season and temperatures aren’t quite conducive for a heavy snow event. In my humble opinion, I believe that this best for the area, since a heavy snow event would absolutely paralyze and already devastated region, in the wake of Superstorm Sandy. I don’t expect to see snowfall accumulations over 6 inches in many places, but if the track of this storm were to deviate slightly to the west and closer to shore, a heavy snow event is more likely for places inland.

For a closer look at a simulated image of what this Nor’easter might look like late Wednesday night, here is an image taken from the North American Model showing a large area of precipitation wrapping around the back side of the low. The area where there is a sharp cut off in precipitation is what we refer to as the deformation zone. To the east of the deformation zone, the heaviest precip banding will take place.

Image

I have one more image to show, and that is the image of the Nor’easter at it’s predicted peak strength. This is a surface weather forecast for Wednesday night with a minimum central pressure down to around 980mb. That’s the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane, but keep in mind, that this storm will not produce the winds or the destruction that Hurricane Sandy did.

Image

Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow! Please review your safety precautions and be prepared for this storm. Even if it is not a Hurricane, it should not be taken lightly. Most importantly, get out there and vote tomorrow, regardless of the weather. It only happens once every 4 years. Make your vote count.

Until next time,

signing out

Meteorologist Mack

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