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Nor’easters

Hey everyone!

Sorry I wasn’t able to post anything new yesterday. I got caught up in the Presidential Election. For starters, I may not always agree with every stance our president takes, I will support Mr. Obama in his next four years as our President. This is a great country and freedom should never be taken for granted.

Now, I will briefly touch on the Nor’easter that is ongoing as I write. I want to start out with a little graphic that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) uses to indicate where heavy snow is most likely. They call this graphic a Mesoscale Discussion (MD), which is a meteorological phenomenon between 10 and 1000 Kilometers in horizontal extent. This particular MD is for Heavy Snows of up to 1″/hour in the Philadelphia to Newark areas. Often times, mesoscale events cannot be forecasted beyond 24 hours, and these events typically last for a few hours. Another example of a mesoscale type of event would be a Supercell Thunderstorm > 10km in Horizontal extent. Well, now I am rambling, so for more information, if you are interested, take a look at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MESOSCALE%20DISCUSSION

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The area above within the pink bubble, is the area of interest. Interestingly, the National Weather Service in Philadelphia opted to issue a Winter Storm Warning (WSW) for much of New Jersey and parts of extreme eastern Pennsylvania, despite the very low snowfall totals expected. Only 2″-5″ is not usually used for a WSW, but in this case, early in the year and with all of the people who have been left without a home and without power or shelter. Without a doubt, a bit more snowfall than I originally thought would be seen with this storm, but not entirely out of the question.

I’ll leave you with a picture that my Dad snapped in Mid-town Manhattan last Tuesday morning. Ill tell you the story of how that car got to where it is and more later tonight. Stay tuned!

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Until next time.

Meteorologist Mack

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Good evening everyone,

As promised earlier this afternoon, I will bring everyone up-to-date on the impending Nor’easter. However, I would first like to thank everyone who has been viewing and reading the blog. I recently started this blog and it means a lot to me to see the number of views go up each day. As is the case with any social media platform, followers and readers mean everything, and I am thankful to have readers and viewers such as yourselves. Now, onto the Nor’easter.

First and of all, the timing of this system continues to lean toward a late Tuesday night timeframe for the development of this low off the Carolina Coasts and then moving slightly east of north as the storm deepens and parallels the East Coast through Thursday. By Friday, the storm will have moved into Nova Scotia and no longer pose a threat to the United States. With regards to timing for specific cities:

–Washington D.C. should expect the rain to begin after 8AM on Wednesday morning and continue throughout most of the day. A changeover to snow is actually looking like a possibility Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible, dependent on Boundary Layer temperatures and ground/soil temperatures.

–Philadelphia/New York should expect the rain to begin after 10AM on Wednesday morning and continue through the late afternoon. At this time, a mix of rain and snow is possible Wednesday night, and if temperatures in the Boundary layer can cool enough, accumulating snowfall is possible in these two metropolitan areas.

–Boston should expect to the rain to begin after 1PM on Wednesday and it won’t let up until late Thursday night. Interestingly, Boston is the city least likely to see accumulating snowfall since the track of this low takes it slightly closer to Boston, wrapping in warmer air from the mid-levels of the atmosphere and keeping precipitation in the form of rain.

Now, with regard to amounts, I am sticking with my forecast of up to 2 inches of precipitation for many of the major cities, with Boston likely receiving upwards of 3 inches of rainfall by the time all is said and done. With regard to snowfall, any areas west of the I-95 Corridor need to be paying the most attention to this. In these areas, temperatures could fall much quicker and heavy snow is likely in the higher elevations along the Appalachians. Unlike a typical Nor’easter, this one will not produce as much heavy snowfall, as it is earlier in the season and temperatures aren’t quite conducive for a heavy snow event. In my humble opinion, I believe that this best for the area, since a heavy snow event would absolutely paralyze and already devastated region, in the wake of Superstorm Sandy. I don’t expect to see snowfall accumulations over 6 inches in many places, but if the track of this storm were to deviate slightly to the west and closer to shore, a heavy snow event is more likely for places inland.

For a closer look at a simulated image of what this Nor’easter might look like late Wednesday night, here is an image taken from the North American Model showing a large area of precipitation wrapping around the back side of the low. The area where there is a sharp cut off in precipitation is what we refer to as the deformation zone. To the east of the deformation zone, the heaviest precip banding will take place.

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I have one more image to show, and that is the image of the Nor’easter at it’s predicted peak strength. This is a surface weather forecast for Wednesday night with a minimum central pressure down to around 980mb. That’s the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane, but keep in mind, that this storm will not produce the winds or the destruction that Hurricane Sandy did.

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Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow! Please review your safety precautions and be prepared for this storm. Even if it is not a Hurricane, it should not be taken lightly. Most importantly, get out there and vote tomorrow, regardless of the weather. It only happens once every 4 years. Make your vote count.

Until next time,

signing out

Meteorologist Mack

Hey everyone,

The latest weather model guidance continues to come into agreement on the development of a coastal low off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening, and then strengthen rapidly as it moves northward. From Wednesday morning through Thursday evening, the storm will hit the East Coast with heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding. The possibility of snow is looking less likely, but the further inland, the better the chance for accumulating snowfall. More on this in the coming days as the models hone in on the precipitation scenarios surrounding this complex Nor’easter.

Now, in the lovely world of weather, we Meteorologists have many computer weather models on which we rely on to help us determine where a storm might be headed and how it will develop. In the case of this storm, the models have been pointing to a coastal low developing almost a week out, and that is what we like to call run-to-run consistency. When this happens, we can become confident in the idea of such a storm occurring. This is very good for the public, as we are able to provide a great warning time for people in the path of the storm. Preparations and the necessary precautions can be taken in due time. With this storm, we have a lot of time to prepare and the computer models are in good agreement on the timing of this storm. The hardest part though is forecasting precipitation type this far out. That is something that will be much easier to forecast by tomorrow afternoon and into Tuesday. I will certainly bring the latest information to you as that becomes available.

Now the track of this storm looks to be almost parallel to the coast, with very heavy rainfall expected from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia, to New York, and Boston. Unfortunately, this storm could bring coastal flooding to areas that have been recently decimated by Hurricane Sandy a little over a week ago. Erosion of beaches and flooding will be a serious concern, as well as strong winds, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph, and gusts from 40-55 mph likely. The closer to shore, the stronger the winds will be. I expect to see many places with storm total rainfall approaching 2 inches or more by the time all is said and done. Now, the Presidential Election is being held on Tuesday and hopefully, this storm won’t disrupt voting in the southeastern US on Tuesday evening. Fortunately, the storm should just be beginning to develop on Tuesday evening and many people will have voted by that time.

I will be back tomorrow with more details on the track of this developing storm and where the heaviest rain and even snow may fall. As always, my thoughts and prayers go out to the millions of people that have been affected by Sandy this past week. Keep sending in donations and give as much as you can. This is important. People always come together in times like this.

Until next time

Meteorologist Mack

Hello Everyone,

What a roller coaster ride the past 10 days has been, with the incredible temperature swings seen in the central US, followed by Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy wreaking havoc on the Northeastern United States earlier this week. Unfortunately, the changing of seasons, from late Fall to early Winter, is often accompanied by large pattern changes and temperature swings. With that, the Northeastern United States will likely see a coastal storm develop Tuesday and then parallel the coast as it moves north and east Wednesday and Thursday. Obviously, the people of the Mid-Atlantic states should be prepared for another strong storm, however, it will be nothing compared to the devastation that Superstorm Sandy brought to the region this week.

Now, one of the main questions here will be whether or not this system will produce a heavy snowstorm inland or if it will be a purely rain event. Nevertheless, strong winds (up to 40mph) and coastal flooding is a serious concern in the wake of Sandy. With the unimaginable damage, flooding, and loss of life seen in the Northeast, the cleanup and rebuilding might need to be put on hold. I will continue to bring updates on this developing situation over the next couple of days as the exact track of this storm is still uncertain, and we will know more about the track as it gets closer.

With regard to the possibility of a large storm developing over the western Great Plains and moving into the Upper Midwest late next week, I believe this could be the first major snowstorm of the year for the Plains, so stay tuned for updates on that later this week, as the forecast becomes more clear with time.

Until tomorrow,

Meteorologist Mack

(P.S. If you haven’t thought about it already, please consider donating blood, or donating food or relief money to the disaster relief in the Northeast. Every little bit counts.)